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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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