Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
